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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          11/13 12:03

   Mixed Trade Seen Midday Tuesday

   Market activity has shifted higher and lower through the morning with 
generally unsettled market direction still seen in all livestock trade. This 
may add some additional market pressure to the entire complex as volume is 
likely to remain sluggish through the rest of the week.

By Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

General Comments

   Mixed livestock trade has developed at midday following back and forth 
market shifts through most of the morning. The overall lack of trade support in 
the complex continues to bring about longer term uncertainty despite an attempt 
to push nearby contracts higher in limited trade. Corn markets are lower in 
light to moderate trade. December corn futures are 4 cents lower. Stock markets 
are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 39 points higher while Nasdaq is up 
50 points.

   LIVE CATTLE:

   Mixed trade is seen through live cattle futures with firming buyer support 
moving through several contract months following early morning apathy. February 
futures have led the complex higher with a 45-cent-per-barrel gain, moving 
additional underlying support back into cattle trade, although longer-term 
support is still uncertain. Live cattle trade continues to hold within the wide 
sideways trading range seen over the last couple of months as traders look for 
renewed support from beef market fundamentals. Cash cattle activity is still 
undeveloped with bids and asking prices still unavailable. The overall lack of 
activity this early in the week is not surprising in any way, as packer 
interest is not expected to quickly develop until midweek or later. It is 
likely that active trade will be delayed until late Thursday or Friday. Boxed 
Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $1.02 higher (select) and down $0.19 per cwt 
(choice) with light movement of 58 total loads reported (36 loads of choice 
cuts, 10 loads of select cuts, 5 loads of trimmings, 7 loads of ground beef).

   FEEDER CATTLE:

   Given the back and forth market shifts seen in cattle trade through the 
morning, the aggressive move higher in feeder cattle at midday is helping to 
solidify buyer support across the entire complex. January and March futures are 
holding triple-digit gains, allowing for increased underlying support as trade 
continues to remain on the lower end of the trading range. The inability to 
hold early-week gains is likely to be viewed as bearish and could lead to 
additional market pressure through the end of the month.

   LEAN HOGS:

   Renewed buyer support has slowly but steadily moved into several nearby 
contracts with February futures leading the complex higher with an 
80-cent-per-cwt gain. The firm gains in pork values in the morning report 
combined with underlying commercial buyer activity returning following triple 
digit gains Monday is helping to bring about additional market momentum and 
pushing prices off of recent lows. The complex continues to wander within a 
wide sideways trading range, but with February futures moving away from $60 per 
cwt support levels, the expectation is that additional buyer support may 
quickly move into the market over the next couple of weeks. Cash prices are 
lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average 
price is $0.75 lower at $52.19 per cwt with the range from $47.00 to $52.44 on 
3,531 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on 
the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant 
Report posted 224 loads selling on the morning report. Pork carcass values 
added $0.85 per cwt at $71.68 per cwt. Lean hog index for 11/12 is $61.20, down 
0.67, with a projected two-day index of $61.87, down 0.90. 

   Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com 


(CZ)

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