DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/18 11:29
Corn, Beans Higher at Midday
Row crops firmer at midday, with wheat weaker.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 250. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 8 lower. Energies are
weaker with crude down $2.70. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
mixed with gold flat.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with quiet trade ongoing at the
upper end of the range. Corn basis looks to be flat with better weather
improving movement potential ahead of the likely year end slowdown. Ethanol
margins remain poor with energies scorning new lows and ethanol futures
remaining flat to slightly firmer with corn firmer generally over the past
month. Trade will be watching the daily wire for more sales with nothing
showing up today. On the March chart the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages
at $3.79-$3.80 is our chart support area with resistance at $3.87 3/4 then the
four-month high at $3.90 1/2.
Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with rangebound action
ongoing with Brazil weather and export announcements in focus with nothing on
the daily wire today. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points
higher. NOPA crush was 166.85 million bushels for November, just below the
expected pace, but very strong overall. South America is focused on the dry
pockets in Brazil along with quicker progress in Argentina overall. Basis will
provide signals on the quantity of nearby cash business getting done with flat
to slightly firmer trade this last week and some rail bids appearing. The daily
wire was quiet to start the week. South American currencies remain weak as
well. January support is the 20-day at $8.99, with the 10-day at $9.10 nearby
resistance then the recent high at $9.29.
Wheat trade is 2 to 6 cents lower at midday with wheat trade starting to
build a range after the recent rally. The dollar has drifted lower to start the
week, but remains elevated for more direction expected from the Fed tomorrow.
Australian harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat
is seeing milder weather, helping late emergence. Russian/Ukrainian issues have
been quieter this week. On the March Kansas City chart, support is at the
50-day at $5.18 that we closed above last week and today with the upper
Bollinger Band at $5.24 which we are just below and the 100-day the next round
up at $5.44.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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