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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/19 11:32

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Wheat and soybeans lead double-digit-lower midday trade. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower at midday with the Dow futures down 
256 points. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 25 
points lower. Energies are lower with crude down 0.60. Livestock trade is 
lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $1.30. 


   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower at midday to open the week with trade 
seeing spillover pressure from the weak soybean and wheat trade. Another big 
jump in the fund length seen on the Friday afternoon CFTC report and some 
triggered chart selling is also noted for our lower midday action. Ethanol 
margins remain positive with spring driving season approaching, bolstering 
blender demand. Double-crop areas in Brazil look to build some moisture in the 
coming days; with early harvest starting in Argentina. The USDA announced 
206,000 metric tons sold to Japan, and 115,000 metric tons to unknown. The 
weekly export inspections were strong at 1.409 million metric tons. On the May 
chart, we slipped below the 200-day moving average at $3.79, with the 50-day at 
$3.72 3/4 the next level of support.


   Soybean trade is 16 to 24 cents lower at midday with wetter weather in 
Argentina over the weekend and long profit taking noted for midday weakness. 
Meal is $10-$11 lower and bean oil is 15 points lower. Outside markets have the 
dollar 20 lower, stocks lower and crude lower giving negative commodity 
influence. The weather pattern looks to return to some near-term dryness for 
much of South America with U.S. weather viewed as neutral to negative with 
rains in the western belt. Crush margins continue to narrow with meal dipping 
lower, but they remain solidly positive. The weekly export inspections were 
disappointing at 490,536 metric tons. On the May contract, support is the 
50-day at 10.18 with resistance at the 20-day at 10.51.


   Wheat trade is 10 to 25 cents lower with Kansas City trade seeing the most 
pressure with rains moving across Oklahoma and Kansas last night and into the 
this morning. The coming week looks drier again, but growth should be boosted 
in the short term for many areas with good coverage across south-central Kansas 
and parts of Oklahoma. The extended forecast is better for the eastern areas 
with the west remaining on the dry side. The dollar index remains just below 90 
on the index, with sideways trade continuing. Black Sea origin prices have 
started to firm again, but the U.S. remains disadvantaged on the world market. 
Weekly export inspections were on the upper end of expectations at 443,269 
metric tons. On the May Kansas City wheat support is the 100-day at $4.65 after 
we fell through the 50-day at $4.85 overnight.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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