BOB'S REVIEW
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June 21, 2019  06/21/19 12:36:38 PM

The corn and bean crop finally got planted in our area.  It looks pretty good if the calendar said May 21st.  We’ll see how things develop going forward.  Corn knee high by the 4th of July should be pretty accurate this year. 
 
We’ve had a nice $1 rally on both the corn and beans the past month.  We’ve bought a lot of old and new crop bushels.  More corn than beans.   The delay in planting progress finally got the funds excited about covering their short positions on the board.  They went from being short close to 300k to long around 200k contracts in a short period of time.  No daily limit moves with this rally, which doesn’t happen very often.  Corn and bean stocks and expected carryout figures for 2019 are large compared to past years.  The rally isn’t about old crop (2019) but what the 2020 ending stocks figure will be.
 
The eastern corn belt corn basis is very strong.  Farmer selling out east has all but stopped.  Processors/feed mills having to bid higher basis values to buy any corn.  And this is impacting our numbers.  ADM CR today improved all of their numbers for old crop and into the 2020 calendar year.  Higher board price and strong basis doesn’t usually happen at the same time.  Bean basis has been pretty steady.  Processors will be bidding against the August in 10 days.  It will be interesting to see if they give us any of the board carry.  The river system is finally opening up.  Barges are making there way north.  I’m sure the river terminals are full and will remain that way for some time.  Farmers are ready to make delivery of their March sales as soon as they can. Hope they all had a good banker!!
 
USDA will release their June 1st grain stocks and planted Acreage report next Friday June 28th.  Both the corn and bean stocks are expected to be large.  Slowing export sales and shipments will add to this year’s carryout figures.  The planting number will be a SWAG until the January 2020 production report.  How many acres of corn and beans did or will get planted?  Yield?  Time will tell.  Look for a very volatile and interesting grain market.
 
Our summer appreciation picnic is being planned for July.  We will post it on the web page and send out invites in a couple of weeks. 
 
Have a great weekend.  Stay dry.  It’s officially Summer.   Daylight hours are now downhill until 12/21/19. 
 
Bob
 
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