DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/25 11:02
Grains Mixed at Midday
Fresh lows for grains were scored before more mixed action developed.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 140 points lower. The
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is flat. Energies are flat
with crude unchanged. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are
mixed with gold up 1.40.
Corn trade is 1 cent lower at midday with two sided trade developing after
new lows were scored on fund selling on the open. The short fund position is
pushing towards 360,000-380,000 short with the action so far this week. The
forecast significant rains are expected to fall the next few days for much of
the belt slowing the good progress scored this week. Ethanol margins continue
to favor blenders after the stocks build and great production on the weekly
report, along with the energy complex remaining at the upper end of the range
and ethanol futures trending lower again. Basis has been broadly firmer at many
end-users with fieldwork being the biggest focus for producers. South American
harvest should continue to move along toward completion with cheap export
offers. Weekly export sales were in line at 779,900 metric tons of old crop. On
the July nearby chart support is the fresh low at $3.51 1/2, with the 10-day at
$3.64 nearby resistance, and then the 20-day at $3.68.
Soybean trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday trade with light profit
taking amid oversold conditions and little fresh news. Meal is .50 to 1.50
higher, and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. Crush margins have faded but remain
solidly positive with meal still holding the $300 level. South American
currencies remain cheap as soybean harvest winds down with the real scoring new
lows this morning before bouncing, and the IMF intervening to freeze the
Argentina Peso amid the sharp drop there. The daily export wire has been quiet
in recent days along with no trade news ahead of next weeks negotiations. The
weekly export sales were 596,300 of old crop beans, 329,100 of old crop meal,
and 68,900 new crop, and 19,600 of oil. On the July chart support is the fresh
low at $8.68, with resistance the lower Bollinger band at $8.72 3/4, and then
the 10-day moving average at $8.92.
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with fund selling and short covering
keeping action choppy. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched more as
their growing season keeps moving with better rains for the southern areas near
term, and spring wheat seeding going in Russia in mixed conditions. The US high
plains look wet for Oklahoma and Texas along with eastern Kansas, and the north
more open for progress in the next few days. The world export market has been
quieter this week as well with today export tenders going to a mixof origins.
Weekly export sales were in line with recent weeks with 425,300 metric tons of
old crop, and 226,200 of new. On the July KC chart support the fresh lows at
$4.07 1/2, with the lower Bollinger band at $4.11, and resistance the 10-day at
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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