DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/23 11:42
Corn, Beans Lower at Midday
Trade remains weaker at midday but well off the early lows.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed at midday with the Dow futures up 25
points. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 35 points
lower. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.20. Livestock trade is lower.
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $20.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from
initial gains as outside market instability weighs on trade. Ethanol futures
have started to drift lower again and producer margins remain solid, which
should continue into the weekend. Double-crop areas in Brazil look to build
some moisture in the coming days; with early harvest expanding in Argentina.
The daily wire was quiet today with the recent export pace slowing. Basis has
started to firm again with the break in futures prices. The weekly export sales
were good but off from prior weeks at 1.47 million metric tons. On the May
chart, we slipped below the 200-day moving average at $3.79, which is now
resistance. The 50-day at $3.73 1/2 is support, which we are testing at midday.
Soybean trade is 8 to 12 cents lower midday with trade seeing selling on
outside market concerns with early trade as much as 20 cents lower. Meal is
$1.00 to 2.00 higher and oil is 30 to 40 points lower. The weather pattern
looks to return to some near-term dryness for much of South America with rains
for much of the eastern belt incoming for the United States, with southern
planting off to a slow start. Crush margins have improved with meal regaining
forward momentum, with a close over $370 a ton likely needed to extend momentum
with trade concerns to weigh on the market. Tariffs on US pork could push
domestic production and boost imported soymeal needs for China. The export wire
has been quiet with business shifting seasonally to Brazil. Weekly export sales
were mixed at 759,100 metric tons of beans, 194,600 of meal, and 36,500 of oil.
On the May contract, support is the 50-day at 10.21, which we are just below at
midday with resistance at the 20-day at 10.49.
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with higher protein trade gaining with drier
weather in the western Plains again. The coming week looks drier again, but
growth should be boosted in the short term after the recent rains, with rains
pushing east. The dollar index is testing 89 on the index, which should support
trade. Black Sea-origin prices have been more sideways, but the US remains
disadvantaged on the world market. Weekly export sales were a little better
than expected at 265,200 metric tons of old, and 164,300 metric tons. On the
May Kansas City wheat support is the 100-day at $4.65 which we were able to
bounce back from overnight, with the 50-day at $4.85 the next round up.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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