DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/13 11:34
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans are flat at midday, with corn and wheat weaker.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 75. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 40 lower. Energies are
sharply lower with crude down $2.65. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals
are higher with gold 0.50 higher.
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade fading back into
support levels, although it has firmed a bit off the early lows. Ethanol
margins will remain poor, which should continue to work weekly production runs
lower deeper into winter with ethanol futures remaining at the bottom of the
range breaking below $1.25, and blender margins narrowing from the continued
losses in the energy complex. The weekly export inspections were good at 1.136
million metric tons. The weekly crop progress report should show harvest
entering the final stretch. Basis will likely remain fairly sideways in the
near term. On the December chart support is at the 10-, 20-, and 100-day moving
averages in the $3.67-3.70 area which we are testing at midday with resistance
the recent $3.79 high.
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade unable to sustain moves
in either direction even with fresh announced export sales today. Meal is flat
to $1 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Crush margins remain strong,
which is probably the biggest supportive factor as the export program remains
slow even with 276,732 metric tons sold to unknown and South America is off to
a good start. The weekly export inspections were in line with expectations at
1.301 million metric tons. The weekly crop progress should show harvest
effectively complete. Basis should remain mostly steady as harvest pressure
backs off. Support is found at the $8.75 area where we find the 10-, 20-, and
100-day moving averages. Resistance is up at $9 then the $9.06 three-month
Wheat trade is 3 to 11 cents lower at midday with trade giving back the
gains seen to start the week as once again we find ourselves near the lows.
Kansas City trade has firmed against the Chicago trade a bit. Wheat remains
near oversold on the oscillators which should help provide support. The dollar
remains near the high end of the range but has rolled over this a.m. Weekly
export inspections were in line with recent weeks at 342,157 metric tons. The
weekly crop progress report will be expected to show good to excellent around
50%, with planting and emergence still lagging. On the December Kansas City
chart, we have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $4.82, and resistance the
10-day at $4.97.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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