DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/04 10:43

   Corn, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Wednesday; Soybeans Higher

   Corn futures are lower at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are higher; 
wheat futures are lower.

Rhett Montgomery
DTN Lead Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   March corn is down 3/4 cents and March soybeans are up 30 cents. March KC 
wheat is down 5 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat is down 4 cents, and March MIAX 
Minneapolis wheat is down 2 cents. March crude oil is up $0.09 and Dow Jones 
futures are up 361 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.23 and April gold is 
up $18.80.

CORN:

   Corn futures are currently about a penny or so lower at midday with March 
futures in a back-and-forth session which has seen early losses flipped to 
gains following the surge in soybean futures, but corn prices have since faded 
yet again. Last week's ethanol production was reported at 956,000 barrels per 
day (bpd) by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday morning, a 
week-over-week decline of 157,000 bpd. Ethanol margins were last reported by 
USDA near $1.70 gross per bushel of corn for an Iowa plant. Margins tend to hit 
a seasonal low in February. USDA announced a 5.1 million bushel (mb) flash 
export sale to unknown buyers on Wednesday morning, the first since Jan. 27. 
March corn basis continues to show seasonal appreciation but remains the third 
weakest of the past decade per the DTN National Corn Index. $4.25 has been 
recent support for March corn futures while the 20-day moving average ($4.28 
1/2) has been resistant, with no closes above this mark since Jan. 9.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 30 cents higher at midday, recovering from early selling 
pressure to launch higher after President Trump reported a productive phone 
call with China's President Xi in which they have reportedly committed to 25 
million metric tons (mmt) of soybean purchases for next marketing year, while 
considering pushing this year's commitments from 12 mmt to 20 mmt. President 
Trump will visit China in April. Soybean oil is off to another strong start, 
with the March contract setting new highs for its recent rally and trading to 
its highest point since late August 2025 with a headwind from Tuesday's 45Z 
announcement from the U.S. Treasury. March soybean basis has been appreciating 
beyond seasonal expectations through 2026 thus far due to the later shift in 
the soybean export program. On the March chart, Wednesday's price action thus 
far puts prices above the 50-day moving average ($10.80 1/2) for the first time 
since early December, and above the other major moving averages as well.

WHEAT:

   Winter wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday, joining corn and 
soybean futures in a bounce from early lows, but have since reversed lower yet 
again. The U.S. dollar is working toward a fourth higher session in the past 
six, which has pressured wheat prices off of two-month highs hit last week, 
combined with technical selling as well. USDA will be out with their state 
condition report later Wednesday morning, a compilation of conditions for 
select states which will be the first widespread report following January's 
cold snap. Demand for U.S. wheat remains strong overall with export inspections 
on Monday up 19% from a year ago, but new sales have been hit or miss since 
late 2025 amid plenty of world competition. Hard red basis is flat to begin 
2026, and the second weakest of the past decade according to the DTN National 
Hard Red Wheat Index.

   **

   NOTE: Hear DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery and Ag Meteorologist John 
Baranick at the National Farm Machinery Show, Feb. 11-13, in Louisville, 
Kentucky. Their daily Weather and Markets Outlook sessions are at 10:00 a.m. 
EST, in Room B102, South Wing of the Kentucky Exposition Center. Note, this is 
a different room than previous years. You'll also learn about new digital 
products DTN is developing. Look forward to seeing you in Louisville!

   **

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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